Taking FA into account:
1) COLTS - Andrew Luck
No explanation necessary
2) REDSKINS - Robert Griffin III
3) VIKINGS - Matt Kalil
Blindside protector and elite prospect to a team with playmakers and that needs OL help. A lazy projection, but likely the right one.
4) BROWNS - Justin Blackmon
This pick draws screams of agony from the St. Louis war room; the Rams were counting on Cleveland taking Richardson. But RBs can be found later, and look at the Browns' depth chart at WR: Massaquoi, Greg Little, Josh Cribbs . . . if they don't land Matt Flynn in FA, they need to give McCoy a true number 1 WR so they can make a fair decision on him next year. And if they do land Flynn (or an older QB like Hasselbeck), they need to give him the weapons to succeed with.
5) BUCS - Trent Richardson
Tampa filled its need at WR with Vincent Jackson and shored up the OL with Carl Nicks. Adding Richardson would turn this into a truly dangerous offense and give Josh Freeman all the tools he needs to develop into a franchise QB
6) RAMS - Dontari Poe
Michael Floyd may be in play here, because the Rams' depth chart at WR is truly putrid, though they do get Danny Amendola back from injury. But it's a little early for Floyd, and having just signed Cortland Finnegan to a massive deal, they aren't taking Claiborne, either. Poe is a freakish blend of size and athleticism, and the Rams' rush defense gave up a ridiculous 152 ypg last season. Poe is a good fallback for them.
7) JAGUARS - Morris Claiborne
Jacksonville stops Claiborne's mini-slide. Jacksonville was 8th in the league in passing yards allowed per game last year, and tied for 10th in YPA, but they played mainly low-tier QBs, their CBs are nothing to write home about and Claiborne's just too good of a value to pass up here. Other options include Coples, Reiff, and Floyd
8) DOLPHINS - Michael Floyd
Brian Hartline is their No. 1 WR right now. I'm guessing the Dolphins add Matt Flynn in FA, and they need to give him something to work with. Their defense took a step back last year, but they have enough quality players on D to make offense the focus in round 1
9) PANTHERS - Quinton Coples
I think the Panthers look to trade out of this spot (and I'd love to see the Jets trade into it for Ingram) but if they can't, and the board falls this way, Coples has to be the pick. He fits perfectly in their 4-3, they were abysmal at rushing the passer last year, and the Cam Newton led offense gives them the opportunity to force other teams into pass-first mode. A good mix of value and need.
10) BILLS - Reilly Reiff
Mario Williams is on his third day in Buffalo, and if he signs there - which by now I think is likely - the Bills will be much less likely to address pass rush in Round 1. If Williams leaves Buffalo without a contract, Ingram is the pick.
11) CHIEFS - Cordy Glenn
This is an interesting spot for the Chiefs, who I think are crossing their fingers that they can land either Poe (Kelly Gregg at NT is a weak point in their D) or Reiff. If the board falls this way, I think the Chiefs are also desperately looking to trade out, and if that's the case (and the board really has fallen this way), the Jets are a natural trade partner (per the draft value chart, it would cost the Jets a 3rd round pick and a 5th round pick to move up - 1224 points of value for 1250). If they can't trade out, the Chiefs take Glenn and plug him in at RT. Brockers and Keachly are possibilities here.
12) SEAHAWKS - Ryan Tannehill
Seattle's QBs are Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst. Need meets value.
13) CARDINALS - David DeCastro
Guards don't usually go this early but the Cardinals are desperate for OL help and DeCastro looks like a Steve Hutchinson type. His teammate Jonathon Martin is also an option, but would be a major reach here.
14) COWBOYS - Fletcher Cox
With Brandon Carr in the fold to address the weakness in the secondary, and Kenyon Coleman as a starting DE in their 3-4, the Cowboys should be racing to the podium to make this pick.
15) EAGLES - Luke Keachly
Another lazy projection - but, again, one that makes sense.
16) JETS - Melvin Ingram
Like I said, if Ingram falls past Buffalo, he's likely a Jet, barring some team with a need jumping ahead of them for Ingram. An obvious pick for the Jets. If he's gone - say picks 10 and 11 went Ingram-Reiff (which is realistic and would leave picks 12-15 unchanged, IMO) - the Jets wouldn't be in great shape. You're looking at guys like Barron (meh), Upshaw (if he rehabilitates his standing with a good pro day), and Perry.
17) BENGALS - Kendall Wright
A perfect compliment to AJ Green, and good value in this spot.
OK - Need to take a break and actually do work. Will finish the rest of round 1 later
SL has a C and nothing else at OL, Gibson is their only WR, and a 29 year old RB. They have a pretty good D actually it is just all teams did was run on them because they couldn't score. They had a 3rd down % of 28.1 and this O was worse then the Colts but with a QB. Teams where sitting on them all year they had like 10 blow out losses because they couldn't even move the ball a little. They lead the league in sacks, if they do not add some talent to that O 1st chance I'd be shocked. I get it it doesn't drop well for them but they have to make a O call in the 1st IMO.
Half a mock? You lazy bum.
About 50% of the mocks I see on Jets boards have either Richardson or Ingram falling.
Do you think that's even remotely possible based on what we know right now?
Team board mocks are always ridiculously optimistic. I don't see any way Ingram or Richardson fall to us.
^^^ exactly. I like the effort that went into this mock (even if it's a half mock) but it feels like backyard baseball card trading the way all these mocks *magically* ALWAYS have Ingram or T-Rich falling to us. C'moooooon. DAL for example. They were throwing their name into the hat for mario william... you think they're not gonna take Ingram??? forget about it.
The only thing i'll say behind that, is we have to see what happens with MIA. if Flynn doesn't wind up there - Tannehill
Having one of the two falling to the Jets is plausible. When I see comments like above I would like people to mock it out to show that there is no way they will fall because if you do a mock there are key points in the top 15 where teams could go one way or the other. FA will have a big affect as well. Buffalo a team once thought to really go after Ingram gets M.Williams and the dynamic is changed. Also there is almost always at least one surprise in the top 10-15, some guy that has a great combine or pro day and vaults up the boards. All it takes is one or possible two teams to go in a different direction and one or the other could fall.
In any case the Jets are either going to get a good player at 16 or be in a prime trade down spot.
I'm waiting till after the Manning/Flynn sweepstakes finish so we can eliminate the two biggest question marks here with SEA/MIA/CLE. And who knows. A week later - Tebow or Locker could be traded.
Beer - if i saw a couple.... mocks that didn't have Ingram or Richardson falling to us, then i wouldn't be so quick to point my finger.. but c'mon dude. Ya, it's possible. But you know what's likely? They're both gone. Floyd too at this rate. Lets see what a mock looks like without those 3 on the board. (10 to 1 says half go Barron by default)
1. Andrew Luck - Colts
2. Robert Griffin III - Redskins
3. Matt Kalil – Vikings
4. Trent Richardson – Cleveland
5. Morris Claiborne – Bucks
6. Justin Blackmon – St. Louis
7. Melvin Ingram - Jacksonville
8. Ryan Tannehill - Miami
9. Dontari Poe - Panthers
10. Riley Reiff - Buffalo
11. David DeCastro - KC
12. Michael Brockers - Seattle
13. Cordy Glenn - Arizona
14. Dre Kirkpatrick - Dallas
15. Luke Kuechly - Eagles
16. ??? - Jets
I did this pretty quickly, but don't think this outside the realm of possibility.